I’m interested in speculating at big odds on a Derby placegetter – but it may not be the Derby you are thinking of.
TIME TO SIZZLE (Race 2 No 2)
She was incredibly impressive scoring at her first start after a spell and if she shows up here in similar order it’s hard to see anything getting near her. Time To Sizzle drifted in betting in that first-up run at the midweeks but never looked in any trouble charging to a comfortable victory in the best closing sectionals of the meeting. I’m guessing it was a tactical decision to dodge a similar race here two weeks ago when drawn awkwardly and today she maps to find a spot just in the first four with premiership leader Chris Parnham retaining the ride. From there she can pounce on the lead upon straightening and find a winning margin before anything from further back knows what hit them. BET: WIN
ROGUES POINT (Race 4 No 8)
He backs up quickly after finishing near the tail last week but I reckon he will go much better in this. Rogues Point stepped out for new trainer Justin Warwick after some good form further east last season including a Tasmanian Derby placing, but after getting caught four wide without cover was simply no hope of playing a part in the finish and was given an easy time in the straight. Some specking suggests he was expected to do something in that run and while he does have another awkward alley to overcome, I suspect we will see a more positive ride with the rise to a mile as he has settled on pace over similar distances in the past. At big odds we can speculate. BET: EACH-WAY
NICCOVI (Race 6 No 4)
She gives her nearest danger Comes A Time 4kg but I don’t think it will be stopping this Simon Miller-trained mare from winning. The Racenet video comment from the first-up run of Niccovi says ‘hit line lacking dash’ but a look at the data shows it was a fast run race and she still recorded one of the better closing 400m sectionals of the day, albeit over the short course. That was her first outing in 47 weeks so fitness should be improved and from a middle barrier, I picture Niccovi slotting in better than midfield for a soft run. This time last season she was fighting out stakes races in Melbourne so clearly the talent is there. This looks her race. BET: WIN
Read all News by Aaron Mills